Almost every living individual is being effected adversely in some way by the international economic meltdown we are experiencing today. The genesis of this severe financial downturn is attributed to the United States government encouraging the expansion of homeownership to people who would have historically been deemed unworthy of obtaining credit. The banking systems participation and eagerness to leverage credit risks by extending loans to people with poor credit histories is the principal cause of the current sub-prime mortgage crisis.

Historically, the bursting of the credit bubble follows a long and dubious line of similar scandals. Greed, hubris and suspension of common sense and disbelief are always present before the hen comes home to roost after the gravy time has ended. The panic of 1908 in the United States, the worldwide Great Depression and the implosion of the technology stock bubble in the late 1990’s are memorable examples of euphoric periods followed by great loss and assignation of blame as to the causes of these financial busts.

These peaks and troughs in economic fortune are not unique to modern times. One of the earliest documented financial crazes was the Dutch Tulip Mania in the 17^th century. The Dutch, being a tiny, mercantile nation, surrounded by larger, stronger empires were the earliest creators of trade policies and sophisticated financial products. One of their most creative vehicles was the introduction of the futures market.

Tulips were introduced into the Dutch economy and agronomy early in the 17^th century. They quickly became prized for their beauty and the floral engineering that created many unique, exotic varieties of tulips. An exchange mechanism developed for speculation in the valuations of the various strains of bulbs. By 1637 a full-scale mania had erupted in evaluating future tulip bulb harvests.

Records from that period are sketchy, but it is known that a single Viceroy Tulip bulb was valued under contract for between 3000 and 4200 Dutch florins in 1637. Contrast this with the annual wage of a skilled Dutch craftsman of 150 florins per year. Isn’t this a definitive example of excessive senseless mania?

The Dutch referred to such trading contracts as “wind trade”. This was because no one ever actually took possession of the tulip bulbs. They simply owned a piece of paper, a contract that documented their claim on the tulip bulbs. Does this example of financial engineering ring any bells today in our current distressed situation?

The popularity of the tulip trade, and the amazing returns, mostly paper gains that were realized by the early speculators created a stampede of inexperienced, gullible speculators. Noblemen, farmers, sausage makers, chimney sweeps and day laborers began to speculate hoping to turn a few florins into exponentially huge investment returns. Of course, the last investors in, were the most harshly abused by the implosion of the tulip bulb speculative bubble. This is true in all bubble cycles.

The British economist Charles Mackey wrote a tome in the 18^th century cataloguing the history of the Dutch Tulip Mania. His “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” remains in print to this day. Business schools and economists refer to Mackey’s study of the herd mentality of people during manias. Nevertheless, though Extraordinary Popular Delusions is still studied, its lessons have hardly been taken to heart.

The greed and hubris that are always present in manias too often define the human condition. People tend to see someone profit from an enterprise and try to emulate their perceived success. This engenders ever more people attempting to participate in the affair and the result is a panic, a mania, a bubble, then disaster.

The no money down payment, zero document loans, offered in the last decade created a completely different type of borrower and lender. The borrowers have no skin in the game. They get to possess a home in which they have no equity. As long as their condition is stable they can maintain possession. However, if their fiscal condition recedes, or the value of the property declines, they are in deep trouble. Foreclosure is a reasonable action for them to undertake to simply walk away from a gamble that did not work out for them.

The lenders have suspended proper underwriting standards in order to induce entry into these risky home sales transactions. They have little skin in the game, because they have conceived exotic packaged investment vehicles where mortgages are bundled and sold to investment speculators all over the world. The owner of the mortgage is actually unknown to the mortgagee, or even the originator of the loan. The loan originator collects their fees and offloads the loan obligation from their balance sheet. The risky transaction is now someone else’s responsibility.

As a result we have endured a period of fake prosperity built on credit swaps, personal irresponsibility, corporate irresponsibility and governmental corruption. The mania of our time is cheap credit. This bubble has burst, and every homeowner faces shrinkage in the valuation of their property because of the greed of speculators and the attempt of government to secure homeownership for people who should be renters. Community banks and credit unions that have maintained high lending standards are being hurt because of the recklessness of the giant money center banking institutions. Retirees and prudent investors have seen their savings and investments slaughtered because of the inane greed and corruption of others.

The 1990’s technology stock bust decimated a generation of people who came to believe that investing in the inter-net was the new “Holy Grail” for prosperity. Startup companies with no sales, no balance sheets and inexperienced management were given huge market valuations. Investors were advised that the tech boom was just in the first or second inning of this nine inning game. Brokerage firms provided guidance on equities that they actually made markets for. This bit of double dealing lead to constant buy calls on tech firms stock that insiders knew had no prospects for success.

The Dutch Tulip Mania, the Mississippi Company, the South Seas Company, the South African Milk Culture craze and the many modern crazes, Ponzi schemes and asset bubbles that we continue to experience are testament to man’s inability to control emotions. Greed, power and wealth are aphrodisiacs for many. We are imperfect beings, susceptible to herd mentality, even when we have knowledge of history’s lessons and could apply these to spare ourselves the pain of participating in activity that will assuredly lead to great pain and loss. Discipline, responsibility and thrift are essential to long term success.

William Shakespeare” famous quote from Hamlet, “When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions”, is particularly relevant today. All of the news seems bad. The negative numbers are huge. The human devastation seems interminable. Governments everywhere seem to have lost control. Debt is perverse on a personal, corporate and governmental level. This glass seems to be mostly empty. It is not!

From the depths of disaster grow the seeds of opportunity. Much as Mother Nature’s wildfires clear overgrowth and enables fields and forests to regenerate themselves, so does the opportunity that germinates from social and financial meltdown. The removal of diseased institutions affords entrepreneurs and reformers the chance to fill an essential void.

Throughout history dynasties, dictatorships and tyrants have risen, and ultimately fallen. They are usually replaced by something much better. The violence of the French Revolution enabled Napoleon Bonaparte to turn France into a warrior state under his dictatorial rule. His “Waterloo” enabled the state to develop into a modern democratically governed republic. The Hapsburg’s in Germany, the Hohenzollern’s in Austria and the Bourbon’s in France all enjoyed the wealth, power and comforts of royal rule before being deposited on the junk heap of history.

Hitler in Germany, Hirohito in Japan and the Communist dictators of Russia all fell and were succeeded by democratic governments with a modern, more open style of governance. Their oppressive rule guided their populations disastrously to decades of war, hunger and societal despair. Something much better has acceded their brutality.

Businesses have historically expired if they did not evolve and regenerate themselves as markets progressed toward new technologies. The home delivery of ice in the first half of the 20^th century was replaced by the mass marketing of refrigerators. Carts, whip, buggy and bicycle manufacturers disappeared as the automobile developed as an affordable method of conveyance. The acceptance of Thomas Edison’s incandescent light bulb greatly diminished the need for thousands of local candle makers.

As the automobile industry developed there were hundreds of nameplates producing niche vehicles. Names like Packard, Stutz, Essex, LaSalle, Dusenburg, Austin and Cord and most other makes of automobile grew, stagnated and died as they could not compete with newly developed tastes, technologies, economies of scale and mass manufacturing techniques pioneered by magnates such as Alfred Sloan, Henry Ford and Walter Chrysler. General Motors, Ford Motor Company and Chrysler became behemoths with vast profits, international distribution and massive marketing programs. The rest simply faded away leaving little but reminiscences.

Today “The Big Three”, Chrysler, Ford and General Motors are all staring at the grim reaper. To paraphrase Shakespeare’s Hamlet quote’ “their sorrows are here, and they are here in battalions”. Every mistake that management and labor could make that would harm a commercial institution they have made, and often repeatedly so. Wrong choices in models, lack of recognition of the ultimate issue of fuel economy, boring styling, strangling union work rules and poor quality perceptions are just some of the reasons that “The Big Three” are so close to being the three, the two, or the one midgets. It appears highly unlikely that they will continue to exist as independent entities.

Much is made of the potential loss to the United States of any, or all of these iconic carmakers. And yet, automobile manufacturing in the country is booming. Mercedes-Benz, Subaru, Honda, BMW, Toyota, and Nissan have all built factories here in recent decades. Volkswagon has announced that they plan to, as well. Each of these makes has targeted features, styling and benefits that they incorporate into their machines that “The Big Three” had not identified. Also, they have all built their factories in “right to work” states, where labor union influence is minimal. While paying excellent wages and providing competitive benefits, these foreign Companies are not hog tied by arcane, non-productive work rules. They do not confront legacy costs that price domestic manufacturer’s models at such high retails.

We are all being effected by a global financial conflagration. The future economic welfare of citizens, industry and governments all over the world are intertwined and will be decided by how the people who got us into this mess approach getting us out. I use the pronoun “us, because we are almost all to blame.

Home foreclosures are surging because of stupidity and greed. People today, certainly in the developed countries, crave things they do not need and can not afford. Some people should not own homes. They can not afford the maintenance, the insurance, the down payment, or the taxes that accompany homeownership. A married couple with one child and a $3500 per month income, should never have attempted to purchase a $400,000 home, with 4 bedrooms, on a sub-prime loan with nothing down. They were fools, as was the lender, the mortgage broker and the buyer of the derivative that this loan was packaged into.

Banks and insurance Companies that purchased these esoteric mortgage derivative vehicles, historically hugely profitable, are falling like flies. Northern Rock in England, ING in Holland, Indy Mac, Countrywide, Wachovia and WaMu here, are only a few of the powerhouse financial institutions that are now closed, merged or selling off assets. The insurance giant AIG has been taken over by the government. Lehman Brothers, one of the most venerable, respected investment banks was shut down by the government. Merrill Lynch has been sold to Bank of America.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been hammered for their role in precipitating the credit bubble that has lead us to this precipice. The Congress, which passed laws spurring Fannie and Freddie to make dubious loans to non-creditworthy borrowers, is looking for scapegoats. A number of our sainted Congressmen want to see “perp walks”. I agree. However, I am confident that the real “perp’s” won’t walk.

The problems seem endless and daunting. They are coming “in battalions”. Nevertheless, we will survive this, hopefully learn from it, and prosper from the opportunity to fill the gaps opened by systemic failure. The equity markets appear to offer a “once in a lifetime” opportunity to profit from the steep losses incurred because of the panic the credit debacle has induced. Strong, agile financial institutions, such as Wells Fargo and State Street, will emerge to fill the vacuum left in the wake of the disappearance of hundreds of firms.

Individuals will have to make more prudent purchasing decisions. 84 and 96 months car loans will disappear, making luxury automobiles more difficult to acquire. “Skin in the game” in the form of down payments will be required to purchase real estate, benefiting the homeowner and the lender. Credit cards will be harder to obtain and the credit limits will be lower.